DA-06 · LESSON 08

Forecast construction

KEY DEFINITIONS

Terms used in this lesson

Vault: A set of Bitcoin outputs and spending rules that holds collateral and represents the current loan state.
Collateral: An asset pledged against a debt; it can be used to cover the debt if agreed conditions are breached.
UNIT: Ducat’s dollar-pegged stablecoin, the asset a borrower can create against bitcoin collateral.

Base, downside, and upside cases expose volume, price, utilization, fee, adoption, churn, and expense assumptions with sensitivities.

65 min Difficulty 5/5 Not started

VISUAL MODEL

See the whole mechanism before going step by step

Use the diagrams to orient yourself. Then the guided explanation below teaches every part in depth.

4 explanatory views

CONCEPT-SPECIFIC MAP · ducat vaultA Ducat action moves one Bitcoin-anchored vault state to a successorSelect any state to inspect its exact role.

RELATIONSHIP MAPInputs, rule, and outputs

01
PREDECESSORCurrent vault outpoint
The current Bitcoin output anchors collateral and identifies the state being spent.
02
REQUESTForecast construction
The Forecast construction workflow proposes one exact action and successor state.
03
POLICYProfile, oracle, signatures
Applicable policy, price evidence, authorization, and transaction shape are checked.
04
BITCOIN SPENDScript-valid transaction
Bitcoin miners and nodes can include only a transaction that satisfies Bitcoin rules.
05
SUCCESSORNew outpoint and state
Ducat validators reconstruct debt, collateral, token, and account changes from the confirmed transaction.

Rule shown: Bitcoin checks the spend; Ducat components independently reconstruct and validate the additional protocol state.

STAGE 1 OF 5PREDECESSOR: Current vault outpoint

The current Bitcoin output anchors collateral and identifies the state being spent.

Governing relationship: Bitcoin checks the spend; Ducat components independently reconstruct and validate the additional protocol state. Complete path: 1. PREDECESSOR, Current vault outpoint. The current Bitcoin output anchors collateral and identifies the state being spent. 2. REQUEST, Forecast construction. The Forecast construction workflow proposes one exact action and successor state. 3. POLICY, Profile, oracle, signatures. Applicable policy, price evidence, authorization, and transaction shape are checked. 4. BITCOIN SPEND, Script-valid transaction. Bitcoin miners and nodes can include only a transaction that satisfies Bitcoin rules. 5. SUCCESSOR, New outpoint and state. Ducat validators reconstruct debt, collateral, token, and account changes from the confirmed transaction.

1. State transitionWhat exists, what changes, and what results

BEFORE

For teaching only, assume 100 active vaults, average debt of 20,000 UNIT, 10 percent monthly fee-bearing activity, a 1 percent fee on that activity, $5,000 operating cost, an…

MECHANISM

Define monthly or quarterly periods and specify starting balances and cohorts.

AFTER

The base case produces a loss, which is useful information. A formula can be correct while every commercial driver remains hypothetical and unsuitable as a public Ducat proje…

Text equivalent: Starting from For teaching only, assume 100 active vaults, average debt of 20,000 UNIT, 10 percent monthly fee-bearing activity, a 1 percent fee on that activity, $5,000 operating cost, and $1,000 losses. The mechanism begins when Define monthly or quarterly periods and specify starting balances and cohorts. The resulting lesson is The base case produces a loss, which is useful information. A formula can be correct while every commercial driver remains hypothetical and unsuitable as a public Ducat projection.

2. Mechanism pathSelect a stage to inspect its job

STAGE 1 OF 4

Choose a time grid

Define monthly or quarterly periods and specify starting balances and cohorts.

Complete path: 1. Choose a time grid: Define monthly or quarterly periods and specify starting balances and cohorts. 2. Build operating drivers: Model new users, churn, average collateral, debt utilization, activity, fee rates, liquidation frequency, and reserve capacity. 3. Connect cash flows: Translate drivers into transaction volume, recognized revenue, incentives, losses, operating expenses, and capital needs. 4. Run scenarios and sensitivities: Use downside, base, and upside inputs and vary the few drivers with the largest effect.

3. Rule and failure boundaryWhat accepts the result and where it can stop

ACCEPTED PATH

The worked case executes the named inputs and checks in the displayed order. Use downside, base, and upside inputs and vary the few drivers with the largest effect.

CHANGED CONDITION

A missing, malformed, stale, unauthorized, or inconsistent required input stops at its first named boundary. Correct formulas still produce unsupported outputs if activity, fee, adoption, loss, and expense inputs lack evidence.

Important distinction: A revenue forecast is source-backed when its formulas are correct. Correct formulas still produce unsupported outputs if activity, fee, adoption, loss, and expense inputs lack evidence.

Text equivalent: The accepted path is enforced by The worked case executes the named inputs and checks in the displayed order. Use downside, base, and upside inputs and vary the few drivers with the largest effect. If the required condition changes, A missing, malformed, stale, unauthorized, or inconsistent required input stops at its first named boundary. Correct formulas still produce unsupported outputs if activity, fee, adoption, loss, and expense inputs lack evidence.

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Learn the idea

A forecast is a conditional model, not a protocol fact. It combines assumptions about users, vault size, issuance, utilization, fees, liquidations, prices, retention, and expenses to produce a range of possible outcomes.

GUIDED EXPLANATION1/4 ideas inspected

Choose a time grid

Define monthly or quarterly periods and specify starting balances and cohorts.

The worked example follows the explanation

Inspect every idea above to open it.

Important distinction“A revenue forecast is source-backed when its formulas are correct.”

Correct formulas still produce unsupported outputs if activity, fee, adoption, loss, and expense inputs lack evidence.

FINISH LEARNING FIRST

The questions unlock after every required learning activity

Inspect every guided idea, open the worked example, rebuild its mechanism, and complete the deterministic lesson tool. Your progress is saved automatically.